Author: Paul F. Diehl
Publisher/Publication: The Sociological Quarterly
Volume/Issue: 26 (3)
DOI/ISBN: 10.1111/j.1533-8525.1985.tb00231.x
Abstract: Diehl in this paper empirically examines the relationship between arms races and the outbreak of war using historical data and statistical analysis. By studying a diverse dataset of international conflicts spanning a century (years 1816-1980), he tests the hypothesis that arms races increase the likelihood of war. Military buildups were found to exercise little direct impact on the escalation of militarized disputes to war. They were critical, however, in affecting the relative capabilities of the contending nations. Parity was the escalatory condition for rivalries in the nineteenth century, while preponderance precipitated war in the twentieth century. The escalatory capability distributions were virtual necessary, but not sufficient, conditions for war. Rivalries experienced war under these conditions only after a series of militarized disputes had occurred between the contending nations, the site of contention was contiguous to one of the rivals, and the defense burden of the target nation of the dispute was high. Part of the Wallace-Diehl debate on the quantitative study of arms races and buildups.