Author: Susan G. Sample
Publisher/Publication: Journal of Peace Research
Volume/Issue: 34 (1)
DOI/ISBN: 10.1177/0022343397034001002
Abstract: Sample’s seminal article that sought to resolve the Wallace-Diehl Debate. It became the key foundation for consequent quantitative studies within the conflict processes and peace science approaches. These findings were key elements of developing parts of the Steps to War explanatory framework. In this article Sample critically examines the existing discourse and seeks to resolve the Wallace-Diehl debate on the effect of arms races on dispute escalation by synthesizing diverse perspectives. Drawing on a comprehensive review of empirical studies and theoretical frameworks, they provide a more nuanced understanding of the circumstances under which arms races are dangerous and those in which they may be stabilizing. Their analysis reveals that the connection between arms build-up and dispute escalation is contingent upon a range of contextual factors, including the actors involved, the regional environment and the nature of the disputes. Furthermore, by introducing a time lag, it also turns out that the disputes that both Wallace and Diehl characterized as non-escalating arms races were at war with each other within five years. In doing so, this article contributes to the broader discourse on international security by shedding light on the multifaceted nature of arms races and their role in conflict dynamics.