Arms Race Modeling: Causality Analysis and Model Specification

Literature Groups: , ,

Author: Stephen J. Majeski, David L. Jones

Publisher/Publication: The Journal of Conflict Resolution

Volume/Issue: 25 (2)

DOI/ISBN: 10.1177/002200278102500203

Abstract: The authors in this paper examine the applicability and adequacy of the Richardson model of arms races to twelve contemporary dyads. Using statistical causality analysis, the authors test whether the military expenditures of the dyads are interdependent and whether the usual operationalization of the Richardson model is empirically supported. They find that only five dyads exhibit some form of interdependence, and that the traditional Richardson model specification is not suitable for any of them. They propose a general distributed lag model as a more flexible and satisfactory representation of arms races, and suggest some substantive implications of their findings. One of the first attempts to apply the Richardson model to new cases, and part of the Wallace-Diehl Debate.

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