Author: Paul D. Senese, John A. Vasquez
Publisher/Publication: Princeton University Press
DOI/ISBN: 9780691134215
Abstract: This seminal study builds on two decades on quantitative work on the relationship of various factors, including arms races, with the escalation of militarized interstate disputes. With a foundation on the Issue Centric Paradigm of Mansbach and Vasquez, and building on the work of Richardson, Wallace, Diehl, and Sample, the authors build an explanatory framework for describing how dyads of states end up of war. Key to this are the Steps which include territorial issues, arms races, alliance patterns, and rivalry which in conjunction make war more likely, casting doubt on the “if you want peace prepare for war” prescription. They conduct a quantitative evaluation of the model in the 1816-1990 period, looking at three sub-periods and find that while in general the explanatory framework matches empirical reality, the effect of some Steps, especially arms races, vary by sub-period. Most subsequent quantitative studies of the effect of arms races and mutual military buildups within the conflict processes approach refer to this explanatory framework.