Author: Toby J. Rider, Michael G. Findley, Paul F. Diehl
Publisher/Publication: Journal of Peace Research
Volume/Issue: 48 (1)
DOI/ISBN: 10.1177/0022343310389505
Abstract: The authors in this paper examine the relationship between arms races and war, with a focus on the role of rivalries. The authors use empirical data from 1816 to 2000 to investigate whether arms races are more common in rivalries than in lesser competitions, and whether they are merely a consequence of rivalry competitions. They find that arms races occur most frequently in the context of enduring rivalries and are more likely in the middle and later stages of rivalry. The frequency of arms races is higher in rivalries with war than in those that do not experience war. Only when arms races occur in the later phases of rivalries is there an increased chance of war. The study narrows the scope of the arms race-war relationship relative to past studies, demonstrating that the arms race war relationship is conditional on rivalry processes. One of the early works that sought to combine the insights of the literature on interstate rivalry, with that on mutual military buildups. The results would become part of the foundations of the Steps to War explanatory framework.