Author: George W. Downs, David M. Rocke
Publisher/Publication: University of Michigan Press
DOI/ISBN: 0472094505
Abstract: A key text in the formal model analysis school on the role of arms races and arms control in conflict onset. The authors in this paper evaluate the capacity of cooperation-based tacit bargaining strategies to stabilize or reduce arms races. In order to extend the generalizability of the findings beyond the unrealistic context of a single game with known utilities, they use simulation to explore the ability of specific strategies to cope with decision environments complicated by uncertainty about the strategy of the rival state, misinterpretation, the time preference of decision makers, and multiple response options. Of particular note is the finding that a state will rarely be certain enough about an opponent’s response to make a large cooperative gesture, and the opponent will rarely be trusting enough to respond enthusiastically to a small one.