Author: Paul F. Diehl
Publisher/Publication: Journal of Peace Research
Volume/Issue: 20 (3)
DOI/ISBN: 10.1177/002234338302000301
Abstract: The author of this study finds that the presence or absence of an arms race between two adversaries does not necessarily predict the outcome of war. The author critiques Michael Wallace’s coding procedures and armaments index before attempting to replicate his findings. In reproduction, serious conflicts between great powers in the years 1816-1970 serve as a population to be evaluated. Adaptations are made to coding and indexing from Wallace’s work. He finds that only 25% of these disputes preceded by a mutual military build-up escalated into war, while almost 77% of wars in this population were preceded by periods of no equipment competition. Controls for differences between periods and unilateral military buildups failed to change this apparent lack of relationship between arms race and conflict escalation. Part of the Wallace-Diehl Debate on the quantitative study of arms races and conflict.