Author: Stephen J. Majeski, David L. Jones
Publisher/Publication: Journal of Conflict Resolution
Volume/Issue: 25 (2)
DOI/ISBN: 10.1177/002200278102500203
Abstract: Stephen J. Majeski and David L. Jones in this research paper explore the dynamics of arms races and the inadequacy of the Richardson model specification in the study of arm races. The authors employ a methodology called “statistical causality analysis” to explore the issues of interdependence and independence of arms expenditures in twelve pairs of arms expenditure series which are commonly proposed as arms races. They find that arms expenditures are independent in a majority of the twelve cases examined. For those cases where interdependence is found, those which exhibit arms competition, the traditional Richardson model specification is not empirically supported. Finally, they provide a specific methodology for improved model specification derived from a general distributed lag model for any proposed arms race. Part of the early conflict processes literature trying to evaluate the Richardson model and a reaction to the work of Wallace.