Military Buildups, War, and Realpolitik: A Multivariate Model

Literature Groups: , ,

Author: Susan G. Sample

Publisher/Publication: The Journal of Conflict Resolution

Volume/Issue: 42 (2)

DOI/ISBN: 10.1177/0022002798042002002

Abstract: Part of Sample’s corpus on the quantitative study of arms races and conflict onset. In this paper she examines the role of mutual military buildups in dispute escalation to war. The author argues that the effect of the pervasive realist culture in the modern state system is to affect policy choices and perceptions in ways that alter the dynamics of militarized disputes when the countries are arming, thus raising the chance that war will be the outcome of the dispute. The study is multivariate and incorporates other factors that might have a strong influence on arming, escalation, or both. Sample argues that when two countries are arming themselves, that increases the chances of a war between them. She shows that this is more likely to happen when there is a history of disputes between them and when they have similar defense burdens and there is a symmetry of military capabilities. In this paper Sample explicit began using the theoretical background developed by Vasquez that would become later the Steps to War.

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